Lately the entire footballing world has been saying how huge a blow it is to lose Terrell Owens. Saying that the cowboys need him to succeed, that letting him go was a mistake, how without his amazing production the cowboys will be as stagnant an offense as there can be, and that their hopes of reaching that holy grail (ONE playoff win) can’t happen now. I beg to differ. I have performed a numerical study to determine just how important T.O. Owens was to this team, and have come to the conclusion that with a few basic…BASIC improvements to the cowboys overall game, TO’s production can be negated as an offensive yard gainer. So here we go, or should I say, “Getcha popcorn ready.”
--In this study it should be noted, before I begin, that I am counting yards as the greatest asset TO brought to this team. Sure you can argue he drew double coverage, which is fine, but he also caused a riff in the locker room, so one might say he made our team a double team, so we’re not going to take that into a consideration. Also you might argue he was a prolific scorer. I answer this by asking if you can score touchdowns without yards? The answer is no, you cannot, yards are a statistical necessity for the ever important touchdown, so yards will be the basis of this and his most desirable asset he brought to the Cowboys.
--Determining T.O.’s yards per game—
T.O. played three years with the cowboys, playing in 47 games, with 3,587 total receiving yards.
This means that T.O. averaged 76.319 yards per game.
People argue these are yards the cowboys cannot replace, or can they?
Roy E. Williams, or the biggest disappointment of last year second only to getting crushed by they that shall not be named in the final game of the season, only averaged 19.8 yards per game for the ‘boys last season. When he played for Detroit (4 years) he averaged a much more respectable 66.4 yards per game. If he can reproduce his average production from Detroit (which he better, being the number one receiver in a better offense now) he will put up 46.4 ypg (66.4-19.8) better than he originally did. This takes quite a bit of yardage the cowboys need to cover the loss of Owens.
T.O.’s totals = 76.319-46.4 = 29.919 ypg
T.O. just got much more ordinary, if Roy can produce at a high level
A huge problem that the cowboys had last season were all the penalties they had to deal with. Negating a loss of yards is just like gaining them, and that’s what this section is attempting to discuss. The cowboys had the most penalties called on them in the NFC, with the 2nd most yards assessed against them at 952 yds in total penalties. Divide this by 16, the number of games, and you are given 59.5 ypg in penalties. Try not to puke. That’s more than half the field we gifted the other team that we lost, and I’m not even taking into account long yardage situations call for more passing yards, which would inflate Terrell’s numbers slightly. Now lets say the Cowboys can become an average penalized team, to be in the dead center of the league in penalties, to be EXTREMELY mediocre in this category. Doable? I would hope so. The avg. NFL team is given 44.5275 yards in penalties per game. If we subtract the average team’s penalty yards from the cowboy’s average penalty yards, we find that they gain back 14.9725 yards; this is if they become the AVERAGE total in the NFL. This is a very doable goal, and one step closer to covering for the loss of Terrell Owens.
T.O.’s totals = 29.919-14.9725 = 14.9465 ypg.
T.O. is wildly ordinary at this point, but why stop here?
Two more things for the cowboys to do, first is get Sam Hurd back. He didn’t play last year, but if he plays next year and averages his subpar ypg from his two previous years with the cowboys, he’ll have added 12.15625 ypg, not to mention I actually expect much more from him next season. Anyway, after this deduction from the T.O. total, you get…
T.O.’s totals = 14.9725 -12.15625 = 2.79025 ypg.
Now T.O.’s production equals to a really poor receiver, one of the worst in the NFL, and this might be a fine place to stop, but I have one more request from the cowboys.
The Cowboys threw 20 interceptions last year. Set aside the thought that it was because Tony had to force passes to the dastardly Owens to keep him happy, resulting in picks, this is an unacceptable total of interceptions. I will again ask the Cowboys to reach just the AVERAGE level of interceptions thrown in the league per year (13.625 ints). Set aside the worst part of an interception, the fact that you LOSE the FOOTBALL, lets just take into account yards lost per each interception. The average yards lost when an interception is thrown across the league is about 15.4195 yards, this means I am asking the cowboys to throw 6.0625 interceptions less to be extremely mediocre next season, which will regain them 93.48071875 yards over the year, divided by the number of games, which would gain them 5.8425 yards, moving T.O.s totals into negative numbers.
T.O.’s totals = 2.79025 – 5.8425 = -3.05225 ypg.
This, as some of you might point out, puts us where we were last year, which is a decent season with no playoff birth. Need I remind you though, we will have an excellent, and I mean EXCELLENT running game barring the meltdown we experienced last year. A QB with 1 more year under his belt who is just getting better, a defense that I will write about next post to tell you just how great they’ll be, and a team without trouble makers like T.O.
All I ask of the cowboys are 4 simple things, Roy and Hurd needs to produce and we need to become average on penalties and interceptions. This will completely cover the loss of T.O., and will make our team much better in the process. Please comment to tell me what you think, BLAKE OUT!
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Sounds a little farfetched to me, though you did claim to be wildly opinionated. No disappointment here though.
ReplyDeleteCouple negatives first (sorry!):
While I do not think that cutting down the penalty yards is too much to ask, I feel that it might be to much to expect. I'm not quite buying the idea that they can replace even part of a receiver like TO by not jumping offsides. Secondly, I realize that Tony had to throw to TO to keep him happy, but I think that with the lower caliber receivers available it will be difficult to drive down the interception total, especially because of the way teams set up defenses to protect themselves from a TO strike. It is unlikely to me that other teams will play Roy the same way, which may close the door for guys like Hurd to break out.
The positives:
I agree that the cowboys will be a good team without TO. Hopefully they can be a better team. I agree that the improvements you suggest are very basic and should not be out of the boys' reach, and I definitely think that Roy will have a much better season. I just hope he is good enough to step up and be the go-to guy. If he can pull this off I think simply the loss of a bad actor like TO will boost the team enough to give them a little heart to pull of a good season. I realize I just went soft on you and put feeling next to a well-researched mathematical number crunch. But I like your style, and your moves. If every post is this thought out, props for having so much time on your hands.
tried to keep it brief. blah. peace.
I liked the mathematician approach to the subject. As if it wasn't blatantly obvious to begin with, you gave some proof to verify what we already knew: (Cowboys) - (TO) = (Cowmen)
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying that the Cowboys will automatically be better for the reasons given above (football has never been played on paper, statistics lie and only liars use statistics, etc.), but it's a fresh look on a very old and now boring subject. Keep the fire burning buddy, this might make me somewhat interested in cowboys football.